WAR ON UKRAINE - Media Insights #20-21

Welcome to the 20-21st issue of our regular bi-weekly English newsletter, featuring an independent review of media coverage of the war in Ukraine. Our previous newsletters have offered a unique perspective on two different perspectives - the Russian state media's perspective and how they interpret the ongoing "special military operation" in Ukraine, and how the same events are covered by the independent media. You can find all previous issues on our website.

The current issue offers a summary of the topics of the day presented in our Telegram channel На самом деле медиа (In Fact, the Media). If you enjoyed our previous weekly Media Insights - War in Ukraine and would like to receive more regular daily updates, please see our the channel @nasamomdelemedia.

The current issue offers the following stories, topics and events covering the period from 10 to 23 October 2022.

[10 October 2022]


Topic of the day:
Russia carried out a massive rocket attack on Ukraine's major cities and many of its regions. Targets included civilian cars, apartment buildings, business centers, museums, philharmonic societies, playgrounds, schools, and universities. As well as some critical civilian energy infrastructure facilities. Eleven people are known to have been killed and 87 injured by the Russian strikes. Among the cities attacked are Kiev, Dnipro, Lviv, Kharkiv, Zaporozhye and others.

Why it matters:
This is Russia's biggest missile and artillery attack against Ukraine. More than 80 missiles worth several million dollars each were reportedly launched, including from strategic aviation and ships in the Caspian Sea, as well as mass launches of kamikaze drones from Russia. This attack can generally be called Russia's transition to a tactic of unbridled terror and open destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure in order to undermine the country's economy, intimidate society, and to get even for the Russian army's military losses in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. The Kremlin tried to play today's shelling as revenge for the Ukrainian long-range strike on the Kerch Bridge. Although this bridge is quite a legitimate target from a military and logistical point of view, as are the military airfields in Crimea, since the lion's share of the Russian grouping's supplies in the Kherson direction go through it. Also of no small importance is the fact that the U.S. Congress is already considering a bill to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism - a slow and deliberate process, but irreversible if such a decision is made.

What write the Russian media:
Defense Ministry: The goal of the strike in Ukraine has been achieved. (Komsomolskaya Pravda)
Putin warned Kiev of a tough response if Ukrainian terrorist attacks continue. (TASS)
Russia has been trying to have a dialogue for 30 years, Volodin said. (RIA)

What report the independent media:
Mass strikes on Ukraine are a desperate response to Putin's critics at home. (The Guardian)
Putin brags about 'massive strike' on Ukraine and warns of further attacks. (The Washington Post)
Kiev calls for air defense as Putin transfers his Syrian tactics to Ukraine. (Politico)


[11 October 2022]


Topic of the day:
Three weeks after Russia's mobilization was announced, we can state its complete failure. After the dubious figure of 200,000 mobilized people announced by Shoigu a week ago, Putin said that the "goofiness" in the partial mobilization highlighted the accumulated problems, and Medvedev referred to the fact that the mobilization is going on as it can in a country that has not had such events for over 80 years (that is, as if there was no World War II either).

Why this matters:
Statements like this show that the Kremlin and Russian commanders understand the dire state their military machine is in, and that the Russians are beginning to realize that Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake.

It is now obvious to many that the Russian army is running out of ammunition, and on the world stage Russia has become a pariah, one step away from being universally recognized as a state sponsor of terrorism.

The desperate situation in the army is further evidenced by the mobilization of untrained fighters, their direct dispatch to the front without proper training, and the decision to swell the ranks of the army with prisoners. Oligarch Prigozhin went so far as to call on Russian MPs to join the ranks of his created PMC Wagner.

We can assume that Putin's regime will next announce a total ban on men leaving Russia to make up for the losses of the Russian army in the war against Ukraine. Press Secretary Peskov acts as an impeccable barometer here, only one has to read it between the lines, like the Pravda newspaper in Soviet times. He has already hastened to assure us that the Kremlin has no position on banning men from leaving Russia during the partial mobilization and no intention of creating a register of citizens who left the country after it was announced.

What write the Russian media:
Putin deemed that the "fleeing" in the partial mobilization highlighted the accumulated problems. (Interfax)
Mobilization in Russia is going on as in a country that hasn't had one for more than 80 years - Medvedev. (Moscow 24)
The Kremlin commented on the initiative not to let men out of Russia. (Sputnik)

What report the independent media:
"If they don't let me out, I'll go to jail, but I'm not going to kill." Russians on how they left mobilization. (Insider)
Russians are fleeing en masse to Kazakhstan. They spend nights in steppes, live in cars - and are ready to give their last money not to go to war. (Meduza)
Where are Russians fleeing to after mobilization began? (Reuters)


[12 October 2022]


Topic of the day:
Russia's FSB reported on the "disclosure of a terrorist attack" on the Crimean bridge, which was allegedly masterminded by Kirill Budanov, the head of Ukraine's foreign intelligence service. Twelve accomplices to the preparation have been identified, eight of them have been detained, the FSB said. According to the investigation, the bomb was brought from Odessa through Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia, disguised as a construction film. According to the FSB, the explosive device was "camouflaged" in rolls of film on 22 pallets weighing a total of 22.8 tons.

Why it matters:
Russia is attempting to put the "evidence base" behind Ukraine's accusations of a terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's GUR refused to comment on the allegations, calling the agency's activities "nonsense." "All activities of the FSB and the Investigative Committee (of Russia) are nonsense. They are fake structures serving Putin's regime, so we definitely will not comment on their next statements. It is surprising that (they) have not yet found any business card in the area of the Crimean bridge," GUR representative Andrei Yusov told the Ukrainian newspaper Suspіlne.

What write the Russian media:
The FSB has identified the organizer of the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge. (TASS)
New information on the progress of the investigation into the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge was reported by the FSB. (Channel 1)
Chronology of the preparation for the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge: new details have been revealed. (Ren TV)

What report the independent media:
Russia announced the arrest of eight people in connection with the Crimean bridge bombing. (The New York Times)
The FSB announced the detention of suspects in the bombing of the Crimean bridge. According to the service, the organizer of the "terrorist attack" is the Main Department of Intelligence of Ukraine. They called the FSB's entire activity "nonsense." (Meduza)
A Ukrainian official says Russia's FSB investigation into the Crimean bridge attack is "nonsense." (The Guardian)


[13 October 2022]

Topic of the day:
Russian authorities speak of attacks by the AFU on Belgorod and the Kursk region

Parts of missiles fell on residential buildings in Belgorod. "The AFU shelled Belgorod. Air defense is working. There is destruction in a residential apartment building on Gubkin Street," wrote regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov in his Telegram channel. Gladkov first published photos from the scene of the incident, but then deleted them. Editors of "Meduza" managed to copy the images and posted them on their channel. According to official information, there were no casualties from the fall. However, there is no reliable data as to whether a Russian or Ukrainian missile fell on the house. In addition, the governor of the Kursk region also reported on shelling by the AFU: two settlements were de-energized.

Why it matters:
Russian official authorities are very cautious about disseminating any information related to possible military action in Russia's regions bordering Ukraine. Hence the half-hearted statements about destruction and casualties. In the current circumstances, telling people that war is beginning to be felt on Russian territory is dangerous for the authorities and goes against the official "liberation" rhetoric. On the other hand, it is no longer possible not to talk about this.

What write the Russian media:
Authorities in the Russian region have confirmed information about the shelling of a residential building. (Lenta)
A house in Belgorod was damaged by shrapnel from a downed AFU missile, an operative said. (RIA)
After air defense work over Belgorod, a multi-story building was partially destroyed. (Bel.ru)

What report the independent media:
Part of the roof of a multi-story building collapsed in Belgorod. The governor said that it was shelling by the AFU. (Meduza)
In Belgorod, a fragment of a missile hit a residential apartment building. (The Bell)


[14 October 2022]


Topic of the day:
Discontent with Putin and the war against Ukraine is maturing among high-ranking Russian officials and business elites, The Washington Post reports, citing its sources.

"We have begun to enter a revolutionary situation. Everyone is waiting for something different than what is happening now: another leadership, another war. The hawks want tougher action. The doves don't want war at all. The time for a change in the political system is looming..."

Why it matters:
The statements recently voiced indicate growing excitement in Russia's leadership about the course of the war and the prospects for the country's future, and further confirms their awareness of the catastrophic nature of the situation. Only a week ago it was reported that a member of Putin's inner circle openly expressed his dissatisfaction with the course of the war.

It could be argued that Putin's regime is in its last stage before collapsing, and is already losing control over various elements of the system, such as the Kadyrovites, the FSB, the military and businessmen. Putin, who has always acted as an arbiter between these elements, is losing his ability to restrain them. But this is the fate of dictators - they always fall.

What the Russian media write:
The Russian media does not cover the topic of Putin's support among his inner circle.
FOM: Most Russians think Putin is doing a good job in office. (RIA)

What the independent media report:
"Someone will be a victim": insiders tell of elite fears of Russian war failure. (The Guardian)
Russian elites are increasingly critical of the war in Ukraine and looking for scapegoats. (CBS News)
With Putin's escalation of the war, some members of Russia's business elite are falling into despair. (The Washington Post)


[15-16 October 2022]


Topic of the day:
Foreign companies may soon leave Russia for good. This could happen due to the pressure Putin's regime is putting on company executives to ensure "partial" mobilization figures.

Why it matters:
There are more than 1,600 known foreign-owned companies still operating in Russia. These companies employ 700,000 Russians.
The mobilization call has put into effect article 9 of the Federal law of RF № 31-FZ which obliges all organizations to assist in handing in subpoenas to their employees, provide delivery of equipment to assembly points or military units, provide buildings, communications, land, transport, and information to Russian troops.

At the same time, there are many undeniable facts of the most horrific war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Russian army in Ukraine, for which they have yet to answer. Therefore, foreign companies are faced with the dilemma of deciding whether to withdraw from the Russian market entirely or become complicit in these crimes.

It is not hard to guess that businesses with foreign capital are unlikely to want to tarnish their reputations by having anything to do with the criminal actions of Putin's regime, and the existing due diligence mechanisms of any self-respecting firm will prevent them from operating in such circumstances. Consequently, we may soon see a large-scale exodus of foreign companies from Russia and a jump in poverty, with 700,000 of their employees joining the "army of the unemployed" which will certainly affect at least another 1.5 million Russian citizens from among their families.

What the Russian media write:
There is no information in the Russian media covering the mobilization of Russian employees of foreign companies and companies with foreign capital.

What the independent media report:
Putin is forcing foreign companies in Russia to participate in his mobilization campaign. Time to go. (Fortune).
Russia's new oligarchs are clueless. (Foreign Policy)
"Get out of the country, just warn the head." Who gets an IT reprieve from mobilization? (BBC)


[17 October 2022]


Topic of the day:
At least 13 members of the Russian army, both contract servicemen and mobilized, were killed in a sectarian conflict and subsequent shootout at the Soloti training ground in the Belgorod region. Fifteen were also reported wounded.

Why it matters:
What matters in this story is that the war against Ukraine is so unpopular that the background to the conflict was the reluctance of Muslim soldiers to take part in it and their attempt to write their resignations from the Russian army. Their commander tried to present the war against Ukraine as "holy," insulting the feelings of their fellow Muslim believers.

Russian propaganda tries to portray the conflict as an act of terrorism, even though the oppression of ethnic minorities in the Soviet and later Russian army is rooted in the distant past, and stories of ethnic and religious confrontation have always been inherent in it.

Violence and oppression of the weak by the strong, in this case ethnic and religious minorities, is an inherent part of the Russian army. So is the killing of Russian servicemen because of "dedovshchina," in which victims settle scores with their abusers at the first opportunity to have access to military weapons.

This incident has all the chances to become a new fashionable trend in the Russian army against the background of high combat losses in its ranks and the forced mobilization, which affected mostly members of non-Russian minorities who do not accept the discriminatory bias of the mobilization and generally do not want to take part in "not their war".

What write the Russian media:
11 people killed in terrorist attack at Belgorod training ground. (Kommersant)
There was a terrorist attack at the training ground of the ZVO in the Belgorod Region. (RIA)
The head of the Belgorod Region commented on the terrorist attack at the training ground. (Vesti)

What report the independent media:
The killing of 11 servicemen at a Russian military base by gunmen as a blow to Moscow's Ukrainian campaign. (Reuters)
Slaughter of Russian soldiers in Belgorod barracks: Putin's mobilization has caused ethnic hatred. (La Repubblica)
Astra: The mass murder at the training ground near Belgorod came after insulting words to Allah from one of the commanders. (Meduza)


[18 October 2022]


Topic of the day:
A Su-34 military aircraft crashed within the city limits of Yeisk on Monday evening. As a result, fuel spilled after the crash caught fire and the fire spread to a nearby apartment building, the Russian Defense Ministry said. According to the latest data, 14 people died and 19 were injured. Among the dead are three children. Among the injured are five children and two pregnant women. Four of the injured remain in intensive care. The Investigations Committee believes the main version of the crash of Su-34 onto an apartment block in Yeisk was a technical malfunction of the aircraft.

The crash in Yeisk was at least the tenth non-combat loss of Russian military aviation since the beginning of the war. The Su-34 is one of Russia's main frontline bombers. It was adopted into service in 2014 and replaced the earlier Su-24 model. It was used for bombing missions in Syria and now in Ukraine. There have been no reports of combat flights from Yeisk in open sources in recent months. That said, Yeisk is home to a naval aviation training center where other military pilots are also trained.

Why it is important:
In recent months, the invading war in Ukraine has come at an increasing cost to the people of Russia. Whereas previously they watched it like "soccer on TV" (according to an apt comparison by Ukrainian journalist Natalia Gumenyuk), with the start of partial mobilization, the war has become increasingly tangible in Russia itself. And the downing of the warplane has now resulted in direct civilian casualties, for which Ukraine cannot be blamed. We can expect that this event will also be one of the catalysts for the growing discontent with the "special military operation.

Also, many Twitter users note that the pilot of the plane ejected to save his life. For example, Yulia Latynina writes on her Twitter: "Now, probably many people are thinking: why did the pilot eject instead of diverting the plane? Let me remind you that Yeisk is 100 km from Mariupol. From this airfield they flew to bomb Mariupol. They say there were pilots who refused to bomb. But they were fired long ago.

What write the Russian media:
What is known about the downing of a Su-34 military plane in Yeisk. (TASS)
The Investigative Committee named the main version of the Su-34 downing on an apartment block in Yeisk. (NTV)
"It's just a state of shock": Su-34 crashed in the yard of an apartment building in Yeisk. (RIA)

What report the independent media:
At least 13 people died in Russian military plane crash, rescue operation is over. (France 24)
Thirteen people died when a military plane crashed into an apartment building in western Russia, state media reported. (CNN)
At least 13 people died in Russia after a military plane crashed into a building. (The Guardian)


[19 October 2022]


Topic of the day:
Vladimir Saldo, head of the Russian occupation administration in Kherson, said he plans to ferry up to 60,000 people across the Dnieper River and then into Russia as Moscow tries to hold on to the captured city before a Ukrainian counteroffensive begins. "We are not going to surrender the city," he said in an interview shown on Russian television channels Wednesday. Up to 10,000 people are scheduled to be moved each day. About 5,000 people have already left Kherson, according to Russian media reports.

The administration of the annexed Kherson region sent text messages to Kherson residents suggesting that civilians leave the city because of possible shelling by the Ukrainian army. "Dear residents! There will be shelling of residential areas by the AFU. From 7:00 buses from Rechport to the Left Bank. Contact: 8800301999999," the message said, According to the RIA Novosti agency, such a message the residents received in the early morning of October 19. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin introduced martial law in four occupied regions of Ukraine, including Kherson. The text of the corresponding decree was published on Wednesday, October 19, on the Kremlin's official website. According to the document, martial law will take effect in the new regions of the country on October 20.

Why it matters:
Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the administration of the annexed region, said the Ukrainian Armed Forces have pulled a lot of forces to the front line in the Kherson region. "We are talking about the defensive process of Kherson. The city of Kherson is turning into a fortress," he said. It seems that Russia is intensively preparing for the defense of Kherson, which is of very important strategic importance to Ukraine.

The new commander of the special military operation in Ukraine, Surovikin, in an interview with Russian media acknowledged the difficult situation for the Russian army around Kherson and stated that he did not rule out making "the most difficult decisions." Analysts say that by "difficult decisions," Surovikin may mean the possible surrender of Kherson to the Ukrainian army.

What the Russian media write:
Kherson authorities have published instructions for those relocating. (RIA)
In the Kherson region, organized relocation of people to the left bank of the Dnieper began. (Channel 1)
Saldo announced the displacement of residents of a number of municipalities to the left bank of the Dnieper River. (NTV)

What the independent media report:
Russia "evacuates 50-60,000" civilians of Kherson amid Ukrainian offensive. (Euronews)
Russia begins evacuating Kherson. (Deutsche Welle)
Moscow plans to move up to 60,000 people from Kherson to Russia. Kremlin-appointed official says "we're not going to give up" before Ukraine's expected counteroffensive. (The Guardian)


[20 October 2022]

Topic of the day:
Ukrainians are being advised to charge their devices before power outages as shelling of the country's energy infrastructure continues. Ukraine's national energy company urged citizens to "charge everything" by 07:00 Thursday because of expected power outages caused by Russian missile strikes. According to power system operator Ukrenergo, power outages will last up to four hours across the country on Thursday.

Why it matters:
Ukrainian power providers said they had no choice but to impose emergency and scheduled power outages Thursday after devastating Russian cruise missile and drone strikes deprived the country of at least 40 percent of its generating capacity. Earlier, European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen called Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine "war crimes. Von der Leyen told members of the European Parliament that the strikes had an explicit purpose of depriving people of electricity and water during the winter months.

What write the Russian media:
Power outages across Ukraine are planned for October 20. (TASS)
"Ukrenergo will limit electricity consumption in central regions. (RIA)
Ukrainian authorities have warned of power outages across the country. (Lenta.ru)

What report the independent media:
Kiev and central regions will face "temporary" controlled restrictions on the state's electricity supply. (CNN)
Ukrainians are being asked to "recharge everything" as the power grid is hit by Russian strikes. (BBC)
Ukraine's power restrictions are "very significant." (Al Jazeera)

[21 October 2022]


Topic of the day:
Russian occupation troops are preparing an information field for an operation to blow up the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant (HPP). Against this background, the Russian media repeatedly voiced the version that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) were preparing a strike on the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant, the need to evacuate the residents of Kherson, and that "difficult decisions" were not excluded with regard to this city.

Why it matters:
The Russian army is losing tangibly on the battlefield, particularly in the Kherson region, and because of problems with mobilizing new soldiers, difficulties with logistics and supplying the already deployed grouping in the Kherson and Zaporozhye directions, the retreat of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnieper, and in particular from Kherson, was only a matter of time.

The Kremlin apparently believes that the flooding of the river due to the blowing up of the dam could stop the advance of the AFU and force Kiev to sit down at the negotiating table, which would give the Putin regime time to regroup its forces, conduct mobilization and continue the offensive operations in the war against Ukraine.

But on the other hand such a "terrorist act" of undermining the dam, by all parameters, could kill hundreds or thousands of civilians, damage vital infrastructure and flood several settlements, and possibly jeopardize the operation of the Zaporozhye NPP with unpredictable consequences, which would finally convince the U.S. to recognize Russia as a sponsor of terrorism, with all the consequences in terms of political isolation and economic collapse.

What write the Russian media:
Blowing up the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power plant: scenarios for the development of the catastrophe. (Military Review)
Map of flooding of the Kherson region when the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant breaks through. (TG channel zastavnyii)
Rogov: Kiev is preparing a provocation with the flooding of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. (Rossiyskaya Gazeta)

What report the independent media:
An Assessment of the Russian Offensive, Oct. 19. (ISW).
A Russian "false-flag" attack on the Kherson Dam would essentially result in a water "Atomic Bomb." (The Telegraph)
Kiev warns of Russian plans to destroy the dam. (Deutsche Welle)


[22-23 October 2022]


Topic of the day:
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov posted on Telegram a video of his underage sons returning from Ukraine to Chechnya with three men they allegedly captured. "Akhmat, Eli and Adam Kadyrov delivered to the republic three captive AFU soldiers whom they had neutralized during their participation in a special operation conducted as part of the Russian Defense Ministry's Zapad-Akhmat battalion," he wrote.

Why it matters:
The video shows the armed sons addressing Kadyrov something in Chechen, the words "advance," "prisoners," and shows three men with their hands back. One of the sons pronounces: "A gift."

In this context, the words sound ominous, because the independent media published articles about Kadyrov's secret prisons and the fact that he personally took part in the torture and humiliation of the prisoners. Information has also come to light about the many instances in which Russian troops held Ukrainian prisoners in torture conditions.

The video itself, it should be understood, was intended to demonstrate that things were supposedly going well on the front. Perhaps the Kremlin propagandists also hoped that in this way they could popularize the war against Ukraine among the youth of the North Caucasus.

Although we should not forget that Kadyrov had already voiced his ambition to become one of the "long-lived" regional leaders of Russia and has one of the numerous "private" armies on the territory of the federation. "Private" because throughout the history of modern Russia there has never been a full-fledged military conscription into the Russian army on the territory of the Chechen Republic.

Against the background of the weakening of the Russian Armed Forces due to high losses in the war against Ukraine, Kadyrov's chances of becoming not only a regional leader in post-Putin Russia, but also quite possibly a contender for the presidency, have increased manifold.

What the Russian media write:
Ramzan Kadyrov talked to Ukrainian prisoners. (Vesti)
His sons brought Kadyrov three prisoners of war as gifts. (MK)
Kadyrov spoke about his sons' successes in special operations. (RIA)

What the independent media write:
A gruesome video shows Putin's teenage son presenting Ukrainian POWs to an ally. (Newsweek)
POWs from Ukraine were brought "for a talk" to the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov. (Kavkaz.Realii)
The video of the Ukrainian prisoners' conversation with Kadyrov raised questions among the lawyers. (Kavkazsky Uzel)

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